Friday, April 04, 2008

Federer Issues

I watched the first set & a half last night…keep in mind that during Fed’s 11 match winning streak over Roddick, he lost only 3 sets out of 31, and won all 6 sets that went to a tiebreak. This is a player who he had dominated in the past.

Fed Issues:
1) Not hitting the ball as well on the run. Justin Gimelstob, the ex ATP pro from UCLA recently turned commentator, noted he didn’t look as quick as usual.
2) Many easy mistakes/unforced errors that you don’t usually see from him.
3) Not winning the big the points like he usually does.

Now for a possible explanation…

Mirka looked awful. I know she’s ‘kinda’ busy managing Fed’s business affairs, schedule, etc…but can’t she get to the gym just a couple times a week? Say ‘no’ to dessert every once in a while? Remember, she used to be an athlete, a fringe WTA pro before she met Roger. Maybe Fed’s wondering how to let her go gently, & it’s a distraction for him when he’s on the court.

Or maybe, as disturbing & surprising as it may be, he’s peaked at the tender age of 26, and we’ve seen the best he has to offer. Remember, Borg retired at 26. In tennis, 26 is the equivalent of 31 or 32 in basketball or football. Yes, you’ve probably got a few more years left, but they’re not likely to be your best years, unless you’re a fitness freak and genetic marvel like Agassi.

If anyone has different theory/explanation, let me know in the comments…

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Who’s #1???

As the gap between Roger Federer and the rest of the ATP tour has shrunk in the last year, the answer to that question has started to emerge – Novak Djokovic. First of all, let’s look at Fed’s signs of mortality in the last year:

• March 2007 – loses twice to Guillermo Canas at both U.S. hardcourt Masters Series events – in the 1st round both times!
• June 2007 – loses for a 3rd straight year to Nadal at the French Open.
• July 2007 – Nadal takes him to a 5th set at the Wimbledon Final, but fails to capitalize on key break points in that set.
• September 2007 – Djokovic fails to convert multiple set points in the 1st two sets in the US Open final, eventually losing in 3.
• Ocober 2007 – loses twice to David Nalbandian at Masters Series Madrid (finals) and Masters Series Paris (Round of 16).
• January 2008 – 3rd round of Aussie Open, Janko Tipsarevic takes Fed to a 5th set, where Fed finally won, 10-8. Then of course, he loses in straight sets to Djokovic in the semis.
• March 2008 – Loses to Andy Murray in the 1st round at Dubai, then loses to Mardy Fish (3-6, 2-6!!) in the semis of the Indian Wells Masters Series event.

Do we see a trend here? Fed is not the overwhelming, dominating force that he was just 14 months ago. Has he lost a step (a knowledgeable tennis fan buddy recently hypothesized a quarter of a step)? Is he hungry enough in his chase for history? Is he 100% healthy? How tough is Djokovic - How many slams might he win? It’s all happened pretty quickly, and we might get some answers from the Miami Masters Series event and then Wimbledon. The clay season is not Fed’s strong suit, but, if he’s able to make the finals of the French again, which I’m not expecting, that would be impressive.

Back to The Indian Wells event, yes, American Mardy Fish did indeed crush Fed in the semis (after beating Davydenko in the 3rd round, Hewitt in the 4th, and Nalbandian in the quarters!!). In the final, Fish was able to take the 2nd set off Djokovic before finally succumbing in the 3rd set, 6-3. Fish’s ranking went from #98 to #40 after his stellar results in the desert. Back to Djokovic, he is now getting close to #2 in the world rankings, while he’s playing like #1 in the world in 2008, winning the two biggest tourneys of the year so far.

This week started off with Miami Masters qualifying, while the main draw action starts Wednesday. Interestingly, Andy Roddick is slated to meet Federer in the quarterfinals. Roddick is 1-15 lifetime vs. Fed, losing the last 11 straight matches. Maybe he can take advantage of Fed’s sudden vulnerability in Miami, it will be interesting to see if they do indeed meet in the quarters.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Americans Surprise, Take Both Titles

There were two tournaments this week, at Dubai, where many of the biggest names in the game participated, and at Las Vegas, with far less top 20 talents but a few big names as well, including Gonzo, Hewitt, and Baghdatis – all top 25 players. Both tournaments were won in surprising fashion by Americans – Andy Roddick in Dubai and Sam Querry in Las Vegas.

In Dubai, there were a few different surprises, starting with Federer’s loss to Andy Murray in the opening round. Next, Feliciano Lopez, a southpaw Spaniard who actually enjoys going to net but hasn’t done anything of note lately on the tour (came in ranked #41), beat top 10 baseline experts Nicolay Davydenko and David Ferrer in the quarters and semis to make his first ATP final in almost 2 years. It was there that his run ended though, as Roddick, who shocked the tennis world by beating both Nadal and Djokovic back-to-back in the quarters and semis (both matches straight sets), handled Lopez in the final 6-7, 6-4, 6-2. It was Roddick’s 25th career title in 38 finals, while Lopez has now lost all but one of his 5 finals appearances, the lone victory coming 4 years ago in Vienna.

At Las Vegas, the 20 year old Querry won his first ATP title, beating another very unexpected finalist, Kevin Anderson of South Africa. Anderson, who came into the tournament ranked #175 (is now #121), took out the number 6 seed Michael Llodra as well as former US Open semifinalist (2005) Robby Ginepri in the semis before succumbing to the highly touted youngster 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the finals. Ironically, Querry’s opponent in the final was far less accomplished than each of the four players he beat to reach the final – Sebastian Grosjean (multiple grand Slam semis) in the 1st, Nicolas Kiefer (former top 10 player) in the 2nd, Julien Benneteau (top 35 last year) in the quarters, and Guillermo Canas (7 career titles, former top 10) in the semis. Querry has now bumped his ranking to #48, and has a shot at being seeded (top 32) by the time this year’s US Open rolls around.

This week, the top players have a few days off while many aspiring stars ranked between 250 & 70 battle to qualify for the Indian Wells event that starts Thursday and Friday. This is the first Masters Series event of the year.