Saturday, January 26, 2008

The Fed Gap Shrinks

So I tried to stay up to watch the Federer-Djokovic match last night, even though it started at 12:30am PST and I had work the next day. I watched the first 3 games, then rested my eyes during the first commercial break. In those 3 games though, I could see that Djokovic was playing really well – hitting the ball deep and playing excellent defense - and that Federer was going to have to be on top of his game to make his 11th straight slam final. I woke up at 5-4 in the first set, Fed serving, and saw him fail to convert a set point (possibly two set pts, my memory is foggy as I was only half-awake). The Fed we all know would never let this happen, and so when Djok got the break back, I went back to sleep, worried that this match might not turn out like I wanted it to.

I awoke again on the couch with Fed down two sets. At that point, I turned the TV off and finally crawled into bed. The eventual straight sets victory for Djokovic marks a clear closing of the gap between Fed and the rest of the tour. You could see that gap closing last summer, when Fed lost in a Masters Series final to Djokovic, and then was fortunate to have the Serb crumble at key moments in the US Open final. My hunch is that he’ll never win the French…maybe not make the finals there again, and never win 3 slams in a year again (he’s done this 3 times already in his career, which is unprecedented and amazingly impressive). I do think he’ll take Pete’s slam record, but maybe not until late 2009, early 2010. The greatest of all time…? He’s certainly one of the top 3 of all time, and his 4 year stretch from 2004 through 2007 will likely never be duplicated.

On the other side of the draw, an ‘in the zone’ Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a French 22 year old that came into the tournament ranked 38th in the world, has shocked the world in much the same way that Baghdatis did two years ago in making his first slam final. Tsonga, who one year ago was ranked 212th, has beaten Andy Murray (9th seed), Richard Gasquet (8th seed), Mikhail Youzhny (14th seed), and then the 2nd seed Rafael Nadal in the semi’s (by the remarkable score of 6-2, 6-3, 6-2!!). His run is certainly not without precedent at the Aussie Open, as many times in the last 10 years relative new-comers/no-namers have made the finals here. Check the list:

1997 – Carlos Moya makes the finals, then only 20 yrs old, ranked 25th in the world.
1998 – Peter Korda-Marcelo Rios in finals….did this really happen? Neither ever sniffed the semis of a Slam subsequently.
1999 – Thomas Enqvist lost to Kafelnikov…yes Virginia, Thomas Enqvist made a slam final.
2001 – Arnaud Clement got spanked by Andre Agassi.
2002 – Thomas Johansson won, over Safin.
2003 – Rainer Schuettler made the finals, similar to 2001, Andre crushed him.
2006 – Baghdatis comes out of nowhere, ranked 54th.
2007 – Fernando Gonzalez…probably (almost definitely) his last slam final, never made a slam semi before or since

2008 – is Tsonga the birth of a top 10, top 5 talent, or a flash in the pan? Looks like the real deal to me. Hopefully he can continue his run and upset the cocky Djokovic in the finals.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Aussie Update…2 Rounds Done

After two rounds, the field has been whittled down from 128 to 32, with only one major upset – Andy Murray going down in the 1st round to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga of France. Speaking of France, they have the most players left in the draw, six. Next is, surprisingly, the U.S. with five – a couple stars in Blake and Roddick, a grizzled veteran in Vince Spadea, a young player on the rise in Sam Querry, and Roddick’s buddy Mardy Fish, a former top 20 player who’s still only 26.

The most interesting 3rd round match-up pits two former runner-ups against eachother – Lleyton Hewitt (2005) and Marcos Baghdatis (2006). Hewitt is not the player he once was, as his freakish speed has been reduced to just ‘nice’ speed, while Baghdatis is clearly in his prime, a supreme shotmaker who could probably work a little harder if he wanted to, but nonetheless has his ranking solidly in the top 20. Bags had a harder time in the 2nd round than Hewitt, having to take down 2005 Aussie Champ Marat Safin 6-2 in the 5th set, while Hewitt defeated a qualifier ranked 216 in the world, Denis Istomin, in four sets. I’ll take Bags to win in four sets.

Another interesting 3rd round battle will be between Marin Cilic of Croatia and last year’s runner-up Fernando Gonzalez. Cilic reminds many people of another tall dark Croatian tennis star, Goran Ivanicevic. He’s only 19, and in the 3rd round of a major for the 1st time, but he’s already taken out two very good players – Nicolas Almagro and Jurgen Melzer. Watch for a potential upset here, Cilic is a rising talent.

Interesting potential matches include Ferrer-Nalbandian in the 4th round, Youzhny-Davydenko 4th round (battle of the Russians), and Roddick –Nadal in the Quarterfinals.

Finally, in case you were wondering, in our draft my friends and I got 20 of the final 32…not great, but decent when you consider we didn’t know the draw beforehand.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Australian Open 2008

A couple nights ago I started to think about how to put together my Australian Open 2008 Preview, so I opened my French 07 Preview to use as a template. But now, after just finishing my Aussie 08 draft with three diehard tennis-fan friends (and all good players, too), it just occurred to me that our draft results would really say it best. It was 10 rounds, 4 teams, and everyone was available except Federer (though I voted to leave him in with a handicap). The draw was not out yet. Every win from every player earns the teams points – more for each later round – so whoever has the most points at the end wins. But before I get to the draft, a brief word on the excluded legend.

Federer – He’s made 10 straight Grand Slam finals, winning 8 of them. He’s won 11 of the 16 slams since the beginning of 2004. He’s made the semis of the last 18 slams. He’s won 3 Aussies already (04, 06, 07) and he’s only 26. That said, he could finally run into bad luck, injury, or tougher competition (like Safin in 05)…or, this could just become his 4th of 5 or 6 Aussie titles. Who knows, just enjoy the show while it lasts.

Here’s the order the players were drafted, and I noted my guys:

The Big 4 – the first 4 picks, every guy’s anchor…you’re hoping he makes the semis’s.

1) Djokovic - Todd
2) Nadal
3) Roddick…3 time Aussie semifinalist – ’03, ’05, ’07.
4) Andy Murray

Solid Support – these guys should make the 4th round, & hopefully 1 or 2 make the quarters.

5) Gasquet
6) Nalbandian….lost to Baghdatis in semis here in 2006.
7) Davydenko
8) Ferrer- Todd
9) Youzhny - Todd
10) Hewitt…lost in finals to Safin in 2005 here.
11) Gonzo…last year’s finalist.
12) Blake

The Meat of the Team – these are the 4 guys we took in rounds 4 thru 7. You need a couple of these guys, generally ranked 10th to 30th in the world, to really excel (4th round +) if you’re going to win.

13) Baghdatis…finalist here in 2006.
14) Haas…3 time Aussie semifinalist – ’99, ’02, ’07.
15) Thomas Berdych
16) Robredo – Todd…Speedy Spaniard made QF’s here last year.
17) Nicolas Almagro – Todd…I reached, but I like him, and he’s now a Top 30 guy.
18) Phillip Kohlschreiber…becoming a very solid, steady, Top 20-like performer.
19) Stanislas Wawrinka…good young player on the rise.
20) Jarko Nieminen
21) Ljubicic
22) Canas
23) Moya…the vet is still getting it done at 31 years old.
24) Juan Monaco – Todd…suddenly he’s 23rd in the world, looks legit.
25) Juan Ignacio Chela - Todd
26) Fernando Verdasco
27) JC Ferrero…another Spanish vet, semifinalist here in 04, French champ in 03.
28) Michael Llodra


The Flyers – you hope to get at least 3 or 4 total wins from this group of 3 in rounds 8 thru 10.

29) Dmitry Tursunov…has top 15 talent, can he get consistent?
30) Ivo Karlovic…the 6’10” giant had a breakthrough 2007 season.
31) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga…hard serving Frenchman on the rise.
32) PH Mathieu - Todd
33) Radek Stepanek -Todd…I’m such a sellout, hate him as much as ever, but he’s playing well right now.
34) Andreas Seppi
35) Safin…high risk, high reward, he’s wasted a lot of talent, but won Aussie in 05.
36) Gael Monfils…will he finally breakthrough at a major?
37) Xavier Malisse
38) Hung Taik Lee
39) Euvgeny Korolev…this 20 yr old has talent.
40) Earnests Gulbis - Todd…still just 19, made 4th round at US Open last year.

So there you have it…4 guys’ views on who will do best in the first major of 2008, often the hardest to predict. Enjoy the tourney, I’ll have more updates when the action starts.