Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Who’s #1???
As the gap between Roger Federer and the rest of the ATP tour has shrunk in the last year, the answer to that question has started to emerge – Novak Djokovic. First of all, let’s look at Fed’s signs of mortality in the last year:• March 2007 – loses twice to Guillermo Canas at both U.S. hardcourt Masters Series events – in the 1st round both times!
• June 2007 – loses for a 3rd straight year to Nadal at the French Open.
• July 2007 – Nadal takes him to a 5th set at the Wimbledon Final, but fails to capitalize on key break points in that set.
• September 2007 – Djokovic fails to convert multiple set points in the 1st two sets in the US Open final, eventually losing in 3.
• Ocober 2007 – loses twice to David Nalbandian at Masters Series Madrid (finals) and Masters Series Paris (Round of 16).
• January 2008 – 3rd round of Aussie Open, Janko Tipsarevic takes Fed to a 5th set, where Fed finally won, 10-8. Then of course, he loses in straight sets to Djokovic in the semis.
• March 2008 – Loses to Andy Murray in the 1st round at Dubai, then loses to Mardy Fish (3-6, 2-6!!) in the semis of the Indian Wells Masters Series event.
Do we see a trend here? Fed is not the overwhelming, dominating force that he was just 14 months ago. Has he lost a step (a knowledgeable tennis fan buddy recently hypothesized a quarter of a step)? Is he hungry enough in his chase for history? Is he 100% healthy? How tough is Djokovic - How many slams might he win? It’s all happened pretty quickly, and we might get some answers from the Miami Masters Series event and then Wimbledon. The clay season is not Fed’s strong suit, but, if he’s able to make the finals of the French again, which I’m not expecting, that would be impressive.
Back to The Indian Wells event, yes, American Mardy Fish did indeed crush Fed in the semis (after beating Davydenko in the 3rd round, Hewitt in the 4th, and Nalbandian in the quarters!!). In the final, Fish was able to take the 2nd set off Djokovic before finally succumbing in the 3rd set, 6-3. Fish’s ranking went from #98 to #40 after his stellar results in the desert. Back to Djokovic, he is now getting close to #2 in the world rankings, while he’s playing like #1 in the world in 2008, winning the two biggest tourneys of the year so far.
This week started off with Miami Masters qualifying, while the main draw action starts Wednesday. Interestingly, Andy Roddick is slated to meet Federer in the quarterfinals. Roddick is 1-15 lifetime vs. Fed, losing the last 11 straight matches. Maybe he can take advantage of Fed’s sudden vulnerability in Miami, it will be interesting to see if they do indeed meet in the quarters.
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