Saturday, January 26, 2008
The Fed Gap Shrinks
So I tried to stay up to watch the Federer-Djokovic match last night, even though it started at 12:30am PST and I had work the next day. I watched the first 3 games, then rested my eyes during the first commercial break. In those 3 games though, I could see that Djokovic was playing really well – hitting the ball deep and playing excellent defense - and that Federer was going to have to be on top of his game to make his 11th straight slam final. I woke up at 5-4 in the first set, Fed serving, and saw him fail to convert a set point (possibly two set pts, my memory is foggy as I was only half-awake). The Fed we all know would never let this happen, and so when Djok got the break back, I went back to sleep, worried that this match might not turn out like I wanted it to.I awoke again on the couch with Fed down two sets. At that point, I turned the TV off and finally crawled into bed. The eventual straight sets victory for Djokovic marks a clear closing of the gap between Fed and the rest of the tour. You could see that gap closing last summer, when Fed lost in a Masters Series final to Djokovic, and then was fortunate to have the Serb crumble at key moments in the US Open final. My hunch is that he’ll never win the French…maybe not make the finals there again, and never win 3 slams in a year again (he’s done this 3 times already in his career, which is unprecedented and amazingly impressive). I do think he’ll take Pete’s slam record, but maybe not until late 2009, early 2010. The greatest of all time…? He’s certainly one of the top 3 of all time, and his 4 year stretch from 2004 through 2007 will likely never be duplicated.
On the other side of the draw, an ‘in the zone’ Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a French 22 year old that came into the tournament ranked 38th in the world, has shocked the world in much the same way that Baghdatis did two years ago in making his first slam final. Tsonga, who one year ago was ranked 212th, has beaten Andy Murray (9th seed), Richard Gasquet (8th seed), Mikhail Youzhny (14th seed), and then the 2nd seed Rafael Nadal in the semi’s (by the remarkable score of 6-2, 6-3, 6-2!!). His run is certainly not without precedent at the Aussie Open, as many times in the last 10 years relative new-comers/no-namers have made the finals here. Check the list:
1997 – Carlos Moya makes the finals, then only 20 yrs old, ranked 25th in the world.
1998 – Peter Korda-Marcelo Rios in finals….did this really happen? Neither ever sniffed the semis of a Slam subsequently.
1999 – Thomas Enqvist lost to Kafelnikov…yes Virginia, Thomas Enqvist made a slam final.
2001 – Arnaud Clement got spanked by Andre Agassi.
2002 – Thomas Johansson won, over Safin.
2003 – Rainer Schuettler made the finals, similar to 2001, Andre crushed him.
2006 – Baghdatis comes out of nowhere, ranked 54th.
2007 – Fernando Gonzalez…probably (almost definitely) his last slam final, never made a slam semi before or since
2008 – is Tsonga the birth of a top 10, top 5 talent, or a flash in the pan? Looks like the real deal to me. Hopefully he can continue his run and upset the cocky Djokovic in the finals.
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