Thursday, January 10, 2008

Australian Open 2008

A couple nights ago I started to think about how to put together my Australian Open 2008 Preview, so I opened my French 07 Preview to use as a template. But now, after just finishing my Aussie 08 draft with three diehard tennis-fan friends (and all good players, too), it just occurred to me that our draft results would really say it best. It was 10 rounds, 4 teams, and everyone was available except Federer (though I voted to leave him in with a handicap). The draw was not out yet. Every win from every player earns the teams points – more for each later round – so whoever has the most points at the end wins. But before I get to the draft, a brief word on the excluded legend.

Federer – He’s made 10 straight Grand Slam finals, winning 8 of them. He’s won 11 of the 16 slams since the beginning of 2004. He’s made the semis of the last 18 slams. He’s won 3 Aussies already (04, 06, 07) and he’s only 26. That said, he could finally run into bad luck, injury, or tougher competition (like Safin in 05)…or, this could just become his 4th of 5 or 6 Aussie titles. Who knows, just enjoy the show while it lasts.

Here’s the order the players were drafted, and I noted my guys:

The Big 4 – the first 4 picks, every guy’s anchor…you’re hoping he makes the semis’s.

1) Djokovic - Todd
2) Nadal
3) Roddick…3 time Aussie semifinalist – ’03, ’05, ’07.
4) Andy Murray

Solid Support – these guys should make the 4th round, & hopefully 1 or 2 make the quarters.

5) Gasquet
6) Nalbandian….lost to Baghdatis in semis here in 2006.
7) Davydenko
8) Ferrer- Todd
9) Youzhny - Todd
10) Hewitt…lost in finals to Safin in 2005 here.
11) Gonzo…last year’s finalist.
12) Blake

The Meat of the Team – these are the 4 guys we took in rounds 4 thru 7. You need a couple of these guys, generally ranked 10th to 30th in the world, to really excel (4th round +) if you’re going to win.

13) Baghdatis…finalist here in 2006.
14) Haas…3 time Aussie semifinalist – ’99, ’02, ’07.
15) Thomas Berdych
16) Robredo – Todd…Speedy Spaniard made QF’s here last year.
17) Nicolas Almagro – Todd…I reached, but I like him, and he’s now a Top 30 guy.
18) Phillip Kohlschreiber…becoming a very solid, steady, Top 20-like performer.
19) Stanislas Wawrinka…good young player on the rise.
20) Jarko Nieminen
21) Ljubicic
22) Canas
23) Moya…the vet is still getting it done at 31 years old.
24) Juan Monaco – Todd…suddenly he’s 23rd in the world, looks legit.
25) Juan Ignacio Chela - Todd
26) Fernando Verdasco
27) JC Ferrero…another Spanish vet, semifinalist here in 04, French champ in 03.
28) Michael Llodra


The Flyers – you hope to get at least 3 or 4 total wins from this group of 3 in rounds 8 thru 10.

29) Dmitry Tursunov…has top 15 talent, can he get consistent?
30) Ivo Karlovic…the 6’10” giant had a breakthrough 2007 season.
31) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga…hard serving Frenchman on the rise.
32) PH Mathieu - Todd
33) Radek Stepanek -Todd…I’m such a sellout, hate him as much as ever, but he’s playing well right now.
34) Andreas Seppi
35) Safin…high risk, high reward, he’s wasted a lot of talent, but won Aussie in 05.
36) Gael Monfils…will he finally breakthrough at a major?
37) Xavier Malisse
38) Hung Taik Lee
39) Euvgeny Korolev…this 20 yr old has talent.
40) Earnests Gulbis - Todd…still just 19, made 4th round at US Open last year.

So there you have it…4 guys’ views on who will do best in the first major of 2008, often the hardest to predict. Enjoy the tourney, I’ll have more updates when the action starts.