Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Summer Tennis

In the heart of the ATP’s Summer Tour, here are a few thoughts on men’s tennis today.

1) The Fed Decline – I don’t have too much to say about the Fed decline because I talked about it before this year here, and also last year here. I will add that I think it’s far more mental than anything else. Fed came into the season this year as a virtual lock to eventually eclipse Sampras’ 14 Slams, and maybe even before 2008 was through! Instead, just 7 months into the year, Fed now has to wonder how & when he’ll win just one more slam. Nadal, Djokovic, self-doubt, and a teaspoon of Father Time have chipped away at the Fed legend in 2008.

2) Nadal’s Domination – He just lost to Djokovic in the semi’s at Cincinnati, ending a 32 match winning streak where most of his opponents were steamrolled. He lost just 8 sets in the streak, against 78 sets won, along with 2 GS titles, and of those 8 sets he lost, 5 were tiebreakers. He has imposed his brute strength and NFL RB/WR/CB speed onto the sport and now has a chance to possibly replicate Fed’s 2004-07 feat of 11 slams in 4 years.

3) Ernests Gulbis – I’ve watched a lot of Gulbis recently, and the highly touted teenager (19) from Latvia is the real deal. He has top 5 potential that I think will be realized. A short list of his attributes:
• Size…6’3”
• Power…hits a very big serve with aggressive, powerful groundstrokes from both sides.
• Speed…extremely quick and agile for his size, plays great defense.
• Touch…wow! Gulbis has feel & touch in spades. Has a penchant for beautiful shot-making.
• Net Play…mixes it up, goes to net, and displays solid volleying skills.
• Guts…Break point down? No safe rallying here, Gulbis is more than willing to go for it big on crucial points throughout matches.
• Demeanor…Stays cool while showing just enough fire. Little if any negative emotion.

Has a chance to join Nadal & Djokovic at the top of the tennis world (maybe Andy Murray, too?) in 12-18 months. Currently ranked 38th, playing like he’s 15th – 20th.

4) Juan Martin Del Potro - Speaking of 19 year old hot-shots, Del Potro of Argentina won his first and second career ATP titles (both on clay) back-to-back in July, beating Richard Gasquet in the finals of the 2nd tourney. I first saw Del Potro play at the French Open in 2006, where he lost to Juan Carlos Ferrero in the 1st round after making it through qualifying. He’s super tall (6’6”) and skinny (172lbs), and can really hit a flat, hard shot. He should do well at the US Open this year, where he’ll be seeded for the first time at a Grand Slam. He’s currently 24th in the world after starting the year ranked 44.

5) Karlo The Giant – On this past Fri night, with the kids asleep, I watched 6’10” veteran giant Ivo Karlovic & Philip Kohlschreiber battle in Cincinnati. Karlo truly looks like a giant on a tennis court – he’s at least 5 inches taller than 98% of the tour. He’s also ranked #18 in the world. Karlovic’s size and skill set present a tricky, unorthodox challenge to his fellow ATP mates. No long rallies on either player’s serve, especially Karlo’s ultra high-bouncing missles. Few if any break opportunities. Zero rhythm. But…beyond that, you realize Karlo is actually a pretty amazing athlete at his size – the height of an NBA power forward. Because most of his fellow pros are elite speedsters (Speedburners), people underestimate the athleticism, speed, and hand-eye coordination that Karlo has in a 6’10” frame. He’d be a damned good hoopster or volleyball player. Now if he’d just come through with some decent Slam results (last 16 slams? 5 total wins in 4 years of slams), more of the tennis world will notice him.

Stay tuned for a US Open preview in a couple weeks. The fireworks display at the end of the tennis season, before the mysterious and seldom-followed indoor season ‘heats’ up.

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Greatest Match Ever + The Best Players in My Lifetime

Federer- Nadal, 2008 Wimbledon Final…

If you want to answer subjective questions like ‘who’s the best’, or ‘what match is the best’, you need to take a scientific approach to come to the correct ‘subjective’ answer. What are the basic ingredients to a great match? You need highly ranked, well known players playing for the highest stakes – a Grand Slam title. Stature and Stage. Who are the players, are they supreme in their time? Are they in their prime athletically? Have they played for high stakes before?

All of these basic questions were answered yes. Both are among the top 10 players of the last 40 yrs…a streak of 5 straight Wimbys was on the line…16 GS Titles between them going into the match, plus 5 GS runner ups.

Now to the match itself. Did it go 5 sets? Was there a big comeback – match pts saved? Were there many more winners than errors, great memorable shots, including at huge match moments? Yes to all these questions, and still more…a changing of the guard between two Gods of the sport, perhaps. This match even had the macabre with the dark, stormy, cloudy setting, and in the end, darkness descending.

And as for the tennis itself…it was beautiful, amazing athleticism on display for nearly 5 hours. Epic baseline rallies where one shot after another amazed with its power, velocity, and placement, only to be outshined by the phenomenal defense played to return these missiles and put the other player back on the defensive. Speed from Nadal that rivals any NBA or NFL athlete. Both players consistently going for their shots with supreme confidence, and making most of them. Quite simply, tennis never played better.

The Best Tennis Players from my Lifetime (b. in ’68)
Decided after seeing the 6th Fed/Nadal GS Final to answer the question how many great players have I seen in my lifetime, and how would I rank them?
GS = Grand Slam

1) Roger Federer – b.’81…1998 to present…12 GS, 4 GS r-ups, 3 GS semis. Had the greatest 4 year run in the history of the sport from 2004 thru 2007. Won 11 of the 16 GS titles, r-up twice, 15 of 16 semis…hasn’t missed a GS semi since French ’04. Beautiful movement and ball striking, clutch server.

2) Bjorn Borg – b.’56…1972 to 1981…11 GS, 5 GS r-ups, 1 GS semi. Huge French & Wimby domination for half a decade and more. Speed to burn, the precursor to Nadal, aka Borg 2.0 Turbocharged. 4 time r-up @ US Open. Won 89% of his GS matches – best winning % ever. Had he played the Aussie more and not retired at 26, how many majors would he have?

3) Pete Sampras – b.’71…1988 to 2002…14 GS, 4 GS r-ups, 5 GS semis. Serve, serve, serve. Very good forehand, underrated mover and athlete, but the best serve ever, both 1st & 2nd, catapulted him to the top of the sport for the better part of the 90’s.

4) Jimmy Connors – b.’52…1970 to 1992…8 GS, 7 GS r-ups, a remarkable 16 other GS semi appearances (31 total GS semis or better!!!). Tireless competitor, fiery intensity, made semis of US Open at 39 yrs old.

5) Andre Agassi – b.’70…1986 to 2006...8 GS, 7 GS r-ups, 11 GS semis. Great mover in prime, evolved his game from flair to substance and won with discipline and conditioning late in his career – won 5 GS titles after his 29th birthday, made US Open final at 35 yrs old in 2005.

6) Rafael Nadal – b.’86…2002 to present…5 GS, 2 GS r-ups, 1 GS semi. Fastest player ever. One of the strongest ever. Most athletic player ever –elite NFL/NBA athleticism & speed. Skills keep gaining ground on athleticism. Was in top 50 at 17 yrs old. Injuries kept him out of French until ‘05, now undefeated there. Likely to end his career much higher than #6, just 22 yrs old now.

7) John McEnroe – b.’59…1977 to 1992…7 GS, 4 GS r-ups, 8 GS semis. Supreme hands and volleying skills, legendary rivalry with Borg. Up 2-0 in the ’84 French final before succumbing to Lendl.

8) Ivan Lendl – b.’60…1978 to 1994…8 GS, 11 GS r-ups, 9 GS semis. Very machine-like game, very fit, very powerful forehand…never took Wimby but was in every US Open final from 1982 thru 1989, winning just 3. 28 GS semi or better showings.

9) Mats Wilander – b.’64…1981 to 1996…7 GS, 4 GS r-up, 3 GS semis. Won French at 17 yrs old, 3 of the 4 slams in 1988. In the mold of Borg, another baseliner from Sweden who moved great and excelled on clay (3 French titles).

10) Stefan Edberg – b.’66…1983 to 1996…6 GS, 6 GS r-ups, 8 GS semis. Supreme volleyer…won Junior Grand Slam in 1983. Made final of every Slam, winning all but French at least twice.

11) Boris Becker – b.’67…1984 to 1999…6 GS, 4 GS r-ups, 8 GS semis. Booming serve & volley player, won Wimbledon at 17 yrs old. Also had a great one-handed backhand. Made semis of French 3 times.

Others quite close:
Jim Courier – b.’70…1988 to 2000…4 GS, 3 GS r-ups, 4 GS semis.
Guillermo Vilas – b.’52…1970 to 1989…4 GS, 4 GS r-ups, 4 GS semis.

And not so close (no order):
Michael Chang – b.’71…Super speedy, won French in ‘89 at 17 yrs old. 3 GS r-ups.
Juan Carlos Ferrero – b.’80…won French in ’03, 2 GS r-ups, 3 GS semis.
Yevgeny Kafelnikov – b.’74…won French in ’96, Aussie ’99, r-up Aussie ‘00
Patrick Rafter – b.’78…The last true serve & volley champion…won US Open in ’97-’98. R-up at Wimby twice.
Lleyton Hewitt – b.’81…won US Open in ’01, Wimby in ’02. R-up in two other slams.
Marat Safin – b.’80…Super talented underachiever, won US Open in ’00, Aussie in ’05.
Ilie Nastase – b.’46…Legendary temper, won US in ’72, French in ’73, r-up 3 other GS finals.
Novak Djokovic – b.’87…won Aussie in ’08, r-up @ US Open ’07, 3 GS semis, just turned 21 in May ’08.
Gustavo Kuerten – b.’76…won 3 French Opens, GS quarterfinalist 5 times.
Andy Roddick – b.’82…won US Open in ’03, 3 GS r-ups, 4 GS semis – huge serve.

Finally…I went to Wikipedia to do much of the research for this, and this below was by far the most bizarre factoid I read:
“Edberg was involved in a freak accident during the boys' singles final at the 1983 U.S. Open, when Richard Wertheim, a linesman, was struck in the groin by a ball struck by Edberg. Wertheim fell backwards, fracturing his skull, and died in hospital shortly thereafter.”

Please feel free to leave a comment regarding any of the old pros I never got a chance to see – Laver, Rosewall, Budge, Newcombe, Pancho Gonzalez, Emerson, etc… Where do they rank among the more modern day greats?

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

French Open 08 Update

Some thoughts on what’s transpired so far…

When you start from the bottom, things can only get better, and that’s what happened for American men. Last year, 9 Americans were in the main draw, and they all lost in the first round. This year there were 10 in the main draw and half of them won their opening matches. Two ended up making the 3rd round – Wayne Odesnik & Robby Ginepri, while Ginepri became the first American since Michael Russell in 2001 to make the Round of 16.

France and Spain have done well, putting 9 men into the Round of 16. Of the 5 Frenchmen, only Gael Monfils advanced to the quarters, while 3 of the 4 Spaniards advanced to the quarters.

Federer has not looked dominant at all, while Nadal is absolutely burying opponents – losing a grand total of only 6 games in his last two matches against fellow Spaniards and two of the top 10 clay-courters in the world, Fernando Verdasco and Nicolas Almagro.

Unseeded breakthroughs: 21 year old Jeremy Chardy of France, ranked 145 coming into the tournament, made to the 4th round before losing a rather tight match to Almagro, 7-6, 7-6, 7-5. Ernests Gulbis of Latvia, a hard-hitting 19 year old, made it to the quarterfinals before losing to Djokovic 7-5, 7-6, 7-5. Gulbis is definitely legit, look for him to rise rapidly from his current #80 spot and into the top 40 at least by the time the US Open rolls around.

As noted in my preview, Davydenko and Robredo look to have slowed down a bit, both losing in the 3rd round, but Fernando Gonzalez certainly surprised me by making the quarterfinals – maybe he gives Fed some trouble in the quarters???

I’m afraid the final will be another non-dramatic dud, with Nadal steamrolling whomever he meets, even the great Roger Federer. I do think Wimbledon will provide some drama, as a 6th straight title might not be in the cards for Fed.