Thursday, July 02, 2009

NBA Free Agency – Pistons???

So I sent out an email to a few hoops buddies who know the game well, giving them my thoughts on the very questionable moves the Pistons made, as well as a few other thoughts on the early F/A activity. The Pistons immediately generated responses, and I decided to make a blog of the email and subsequent thoughts. Three separate emails below my original are separated by dashed lines.

I don't like their moves at all...Ben G is an undersized SG who guns too much, can shoot you into or out of a game, but is not a complete player, and C-Vill is a perimeter oriented PF....they make all the right moves to get cap space & rebuild, then blow the $$$ on very ??? players.....do you really think these two can be integral members of a championship squad?

Teams have this 'spend now' mentality when they first get their cap space. I say, if the right players aren't available, save it for another year - try to find some upside young guys in the meantime, or a cheap, smart vet who knows his role.

Also, Lakers offered $5.6m/yr to Ariza.....huh??? This guy is young(24), improving radically, a great defender, great athlete, and you really think you can lock him up at 5.6? Paper said he's looking for between $7m & 8m, which is exactly what he should get - $7.5m for 5 years....I hope he walks.

Clippers dump Zach onto Memphis...nice move, though they still have 3 centers - Camby, Kaman, and Jordan, who put up nice #'s last year when he got the minutes.
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Buddy #1: Couldn't agree more...and I used to think the Pistons were as well managed as the other top organizations (Spurs, Jazz, etc.). People gave him a pass on Darko, because he made so many other good decisions. But now? Wow...Gave Billups away for nothing. Touted Amir Johnson and then just gave him away. He killed his own coach all season and then fired him. Alienated his two best players (Hamilton and Prince) and now signs two street ball players that couldn’t guard a pylon. Comedy.
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Buddy #2: Dumars has lost his mind. The guy fires a coach that led them to the Conference finals every year he is there, he then hires a rookie coach who had one year experience as an assistant and traded away they're best player for a known dressing room cancer in Iverson (who is over the hill). He makes this trade to clear cap room supposedly for the 2010 free agency class, but then he goes on to make these moves.
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Buddy #1: And thinking about this, do they plan to have Gordon come off the bench? He is not a PG and Rip Hamilton sure isn’t going to come off the bench again. Why re-sign Hamilton mid-season this year, if this is what they had planned?

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Friday, June 26, 2009

NBA Draft Update

8 PGs in the 1st 21 picks!!!!

I like Minn going double PG at 5 & 6...I would gone big/little w/ Jordan Hill & Flynn, but Rubio's not even 19 yet and has the special intangibles that the best passers have. I like Ty Lawson studying under a master (Billups) in Den, great move by them. Toronto got a gem in DeRozen at #9 - special athlete, solid citizen, got radically better toward the end of his 1 year in college, I love him.

Love that NJ is dumping an aging Vince to get younger and build, and then draft Terrence Williams, who's right there with DeRozen athletically. Of course I hate the safe, boring Hansborough pick by Indy at #13...I like Jeff Teague a lot - the 6th PG taken at #19 by the Hawks. He certainly looks better than their 2007 draft bust Acie Law (I was also wrong on him, thought he'd be good). Teague looks very explosive and smooth. Detroit's pick of Daye at #15 is very questionable...he looks like a 6'10" SG - I'd rather have a 6'5"--6'7" athlete at SG. And his dad was a Bruin who did nothing in the pros.

I like Phx going E. Clark at #14 - big upside, hopefully his attitude improves w/ growth & maturity.

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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

2009 NBA Draft Preview

Ok, I’m gonna talk about guys I like, guys I don’t, and guys I’m neutral on. Then, I have a special mock draft summation at the end.

Don’t Like
1) Stephen Curry – PG?SG?...does anyone remember Trajan Langdon? Now maybe Curry’s better than the 1999 draft bust that wily Jim Paxson snagged for the Cavs 10 yrs ago, but that’s not saying much. He’s not a true PG, he’s not quick enough to be a true PG, and he’s 6’2” trying to be a shooter/scorer in the NBA with below average athleticism...good luck. Any number of NBA defenders will be able to guard him, and he’ll struggle to defend most guards…I am NOT a fan.

2) James Harden – SG…Does he have all the intangibles that a Roy or Paul Pierce has? Is he that smooth and smart? To go in the top 5, where a lot of people have him, he better be close, because he’s very average athletically…he also will be guarded more tightly and effectively, and will take time to adjust…if he ever does.

3) Hasheem Thabeet – C…Is he Mutombo? I have a very good friend, a cousin-in-law, who’s a sharp hoops fan and big fan of Big East basketball as he went to G-Town. He hates this guy. With my inherent dislike for unskilled bigs, I’ll defer to his judgment and join the detractors.

4) Ricky Rubio – PG…He’s a white Euro PG…how many of them have hit it big in the NBA? And he’s taller than average, has a marginal outside shot, and is not an elite athlete by any means. He will struggle to guard both PG’s and SG’s, while lots of super-athletic home grown USA talent will be chomping at the bit to lock him down.

Like
1) Johnny Flynn – PG…Ok, here’s a hunch…this guy is way better than Rubio or Curry both immediately and down the line. Top 5 talent, very quick and explosive and fearless and confident. Did you see Aaron Brooks for Houston in the playoffs? Flynn’s a little bigger, a better leaper, but probably not quicker or as good a shooter. He’s gutsy but he still has to develop his shot and PG skills further…hopefully he does, cuz the sky’s the limit if so.

2) Earl Clark – SF/PF…Delicious upside…tall, skilled, a bit Lamar Odom-like (we hope the head is better!). 6’9” (7’2” wingspan), can handle it and shoot, play inside, and is athletic. He does need to develop more moves in the post, but he’s versatile enough to be effective immediately while figures the post out. He’s top 6 to me. A little like Anthony Randolph maybe, the G.S. rookie last year.

3) Brandon Jennings – PG…Ok, here’s the caveat. The more you learn about him, the more you’re reminded of Sebastian Telfair. Like Telfair, he’s small, super quick and athletic, and still learning much about the game. But he worked very hard in a tough European environment this past season, not easy for a kid spoiled throughout high school hoops, and I think it’ll pay off when he’s back in the states. I think Telfair is a good guy, who may still get it one day…and I have faith in this kid, too.

4) Jordan Hill – PF…A tall athlete similar to Clark, but plays more inside. More upside than Thabeet, is a good rebounder, and has some post moves. Good athleticism and leaping ability, could be a big time PF if he really focuses – focus and intensity are issues with him.


Neutral
1) Tyreke Evans – PG/SG…Hmmm…lots of red flags, like his average quickness and explosion, tendency to dominate the ball, and bad shooting technique. He does have a freakish wingspan of 6’11”, nice for a 6’4” guy, but he’s not a finished product, and who knows if he’ll ever be.

2) Blake Griffin – PF…I’m only neutral as to the extreme hype surrounding him. Yes, I too think he’ll make it and be good, but definitely All Star caliber…? Not sure. He can board, but he’ll have to refine his offense a bit. If he’s as good as Elton Brand in his prime, that’s impressive. He’s more athletic than EB, but EB has the feel for the game and intangibles, not sure Blake will acquire those.

3) DeMar DeRozan – SG/SF…ahhh, the last good thing to come of the USC hoops program for quite a while possibly, as things are a bit messy over there these days…but the football program’s clean, right? A super athlete, with T-Mac upside, but very young and undeveloped. Showed improvement towards the latter half of the year, should go higher than T-Mac did (#9 in 1997).

4) Jrue Holiday – PG/SG…Might be able to contribute right away with his defensive skills and abilities. Still needs to work on his offensive game, and is a nice athlete, but not elite, not explosive. If he can develop into a true PG, with his height (6’4”), and also improves his offense, could be a nice player for a long time.

5) DeJuan Blair – PF…He’s under 6’6” without shoes, only 6’6” & a half in shoes. While that’s certainly a problem for an NBA PF, Blair weighs 270+ lbs. and knows how to use it to grab rebounds. One reason is his freakishly long wingspan, 7’2” for someone under 6’6” – wow! Averaged 5.6 offensive rebounds a game last year. Lack of mobility and explosion limits his upside, probably best served by getting down to 255 lbs.

I looked at 7 different mock drafts and averaged the consensus draft position for the top players. Here it is below, with each guy’s average position, and the range (highest draft slot & lowest). After the top 13 guys, there is no consensus, and the next best average was well over 15.

1) Griffin --------------1.0...consensus #1.
2) Thabeet ------------1.9…2-6
3) Rubio ---------------3.3…2-4
4) Harden -------------3.7…2-5
5) Curry ---------------6.0…4-8
6) Hill ------------------6.7…5-10
7) Evans --------------7.6…6-12
8) DeRozen -----------9.0…6-11
9) Flynn ---------------9.4…7-14
10) Holiday -----------10.7…4-18
11) Jennings ----------10.7…7-14
12) Clark --------------13.7…11-16
13) G. Henderson ----14.1…9-21

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