Thursday, May 08, 2008

Broken Legs, Celts/Cavs, and Boston’s Future

So yesterday my 3 year old breaks his leg (lower tibia) doing a 180 degree jump spin in Grandma’s kitchen. While that was quite an unfortunate event, there are two positives to pull from it: 1) He was practicing spinning jumps, very much a ‘dad’ trait he inherited. 2) He’s totally immobile now, so I sat on the couch with him and was able to watch the entire 2nd half of the Celtics/Cavs Game 1.

While the game itself was very tight and filled with drama, it was also a repulsive offensive performance, with 3 of the Big Four (KG, Pierce, Allen, Lebron) in the game having absolutely atrocious nights shooting/scoring. Look at the numbers, keeping in mind that of these 3 guys, we have a future Hall-of-Famer and two perennial All-Stars (at least in their prime). Lebron was 2-18 from the floor, with 10 turnovers and a multitude of missed layups, including a key one that would have tied the game with under 10 seconds left. Ray Allen only got off 4 shots in 37 minutes, missing all of them, and committing 4 turnovers to go with just one assist and 4 rebs. He never made it to the free throw line. Pierce missed 12 of his 14 shot attempts, also never made it to the charity stripe, and had 6 turnovers. So between these three, they shot 4-36 (11.1%), and had 20 turnovers against 14 assists – 9 for lebron.

While Lebron is a freak talent for his size, skill, and athleticism, he has had awful shooting nights in the playoffs before – just look at the NBA Finals last year, where he failed to shoot 50% in any of the 4 games, and shot just 41.6% overall in the playoffs last year. Also, this game was his 4th straight in these playoffs where he’s failed to achieve 50%. There’s still only one MJ, and Bron Bron ain’t close yet.

Ray Allen is fading fast; there’s no other way to put it. This is the end of his 12th season, and the numbers definitely reflect a player slowing down. He’s shooting just 40.4% in these playoffs, averaging just 14.1 pts a game. He has only attempted 11 free throws in 8 games, meaning he’s almost completely a stand still jump shooter these days. Sadly for Boston fans, the team has sold their future to win today, but that is not likely to happen – 7 games vs. Atlanta, a squeaker to open the Clev series, and Det & the West still on the horizon?? Here’s the really scary part – they owe Ray $17m next season and $18m in 2009-10…ouch!!

Finally, there’s Pierce’s dog performance. He also seems to be slowing down in his 10th year in the league. His free throw attempts per game dropped to 6.1 this regular season, and to 4.4 in the playoffs, off of a career average of 7.9, including the 07-08 season. Pierce has never been a freak athlete, but always just athletic enough to use his size to jump high enough, or dribble-drive quick enough to be more than effective. Now that he’s going to be 31 to open his 11th season next year, any step he loses will drop his effectiveness that much more. And his contract situation is even worse that Allen’s – he’s owed $18m next year, $19.9 in 2009-10, and then $21.8m the year after that!!!

The bottom line is, this whole KG to the Celts, Boston revival is going to end up as nothing but a blip on the radar – one tremendous regular season, followed by a disappointing playoff run that will NOT end up with rings for the Big 3. This will then be follwed by a prolonged period of salary cap hell, as KG, who is finishing up his 13th season and also slowing down, has 4 years and $81m left on his contract. Sorry Celtic fans, but this won’t turn out to be such a ‘dream team’ after all.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Kidd Trade Revisited & Other Thoughts

When Dallas, who has to contend with Tony Parker and Chris Paul in the West, got older & slower two + months ago, I didn’t like the idea. It looks horrible now. Devin Harris is one of the few guards in the league who has quickness approaching that of Parker & Paul. He’s Dallas’ big chance to offset those PG’s enough to give the team a better chance of winning. He’s also young and improving, a probable PG solution for 5 or 6 years.

Kidd is fading fast, his quickness & effectiveness looking worse and worse on a monthly basis. He’s owed $21m next season, but then they’re out, so Dallas has that going for them. Shop wisely with your millions, Mark.

Other Thoughts

Clemens’ Latest…classic. If I’m an IRS agent, I am literally sprinting around trying to find his file. Here’s a guy who fits the profile of a tax cheat to the T. He lies, repeatedly and on various topics, about important subjects. But not only does he lie, he cheats – in baseball and his marriage. So you have a liar and cheater, on a grand scale, who makes millions…audit underway!!!!

I love the Hawks sweeping at home; it would be beautiful to see possibly the most shocking upset in NBA playoff history unfold. If Atlanta is able to continue to exploit its large athletic advantage by running at all opportunities, this upset could happen. How bitter would Stern and the networks be?

NFL Draft

I like Rice from Rutgers in the 2nd rnd to Baltimore. Great. speedy little complement to McGahee…Dallas should have taken Mendenhall, a much better value over Jones at #22. If Barber goes down, which with his reckless style could certainly happen, they’d want the 225 lb Mendenhall over the 207 lb Jones…Green Bay going with QB Briam Brohm in the 2nd is very silly to me. GB could be a good 2nd round pick away from a Super Bowl this year, depending on how solid & safe Rodgers is at QB. But instead they invest in a QB project that gives them no return in 2008? You think the players are real happy about that? Risky, unwise move to me.

Political Thought of the Day…

Look at the economic abilities & plans of the 3 remaining presidential candidates. Now look at the economic situation of the country: astronomical debt levels making new records every day as the credit creating bonanza that brought us to this point continues in the early stages of its violent implosion.

The masses are crying out for govt help & they’re going to get it, much to the detriment of the nation. Larger govt and more regulations will arrive at a time of rising inflation and budget tightening amongst the people. We have a group of politicians running the country who have all the foresight of the countdown til the next election. Funding future govt liabilities like Social Security & Medicaid? Creating a new energy policy to address the peak oil reality that is just moments away from slapping us in the face and dramatically altering our lifestyles? Are any politicians talking about that? What about cutting govt down to a size where revenues could meet or even beat expenses? Unfortunately, we know what the mainstream media and politicians think of these silly notions. They marginalized Ron Paul immediately for prioritizing these major issues.

Our country needs radical change in leadership & philosophy right now, and sadly, all it requires is a return to our very own Constitution. By 2012, it will be more obvious to the masses and politicians, but God knows how events will unfold in the preceding 4 years…buckle up for safety!!

Sunday, April 27, 2008

2008 NFL Draft - Day 1 Thoughts

My first post in almost 3 months….sorry for the long hiatus, but enjoy my thoughts on day 1 below…

- Thank you Raiders for not thinking you’re ‘set’ @ RB w/ the poo poo platter of Vargas, L. Jordan, & Michael Bush. McFadden could be special.

- Atlanta…you want to roll the dice on the #3 pick rather than take a potential defensive anchor like Dorsey or Ellis, or even a rusher like Gohlsten? QB picks in the top 15 are much bigger gambles than other positions. And look how late Henne & Brohm fell? Much lower $$$ risk to sign the 56th pick than the 3rd. A team with many immediate needs should take an immediate impact player there, especially for the $$$ shelled out, not a project to groom. Then they trade up to grab Baker in the first round, when most everyone thought he was a second rounder. I saw about every one of his games at SC; I don’t think he’s a 1st rounder or a potential LT in the league. Not a special athlete, just a solid player.

- Tennessee reached for Chris Johnson with the 24th pick, when Devin Thomas was on the board, amazingly, and they are DESPERATE for a potential top notch #1 WR to help Vince Young in his development. And Johnson, while possessing ridiculous speed (sub 4.3 40), must not have good vision, because his yds/carry was not impressive in college, and he didn’t stand out Senior bowl week. He’s a second rounder at best in my view.

- The Chiefs rocked the draft with 3 of the top 35 picks, include the #5 overall. In Dorsey, OG Branden Albert, & hard hitting CB Brandon Flowers from Va Tech, they might have just drafted three 2008 starters. Flowers could likely play free safety in the league for 10 years if his speed isn’t adequate enough for CB.

- Washington went pass catch happy today. They stole the aforementioned Devin Thomas early in the 2nd round, and then added the nation’s best TE in 2007 in Fred Davis, a very solid value out of USC at #48 overall. Finally, they went with another big WR, albeit not near as fast as Thomas, with Malcolm Kelly (6’4” 217) of Oklahoma. It’s good that they got value with every pick, but don’t they need help in other areas too?

- Pittsburg absolutely stole Rashard Mendenhall with the 23rd pick…he should easily go down as a top 10 pick of this draft in a couple years time. Is he better than Willie Parker? Probably, in a year or two. Limas Sweed is a nice value halfway through the 2nd round at WR, a very large and productive player from Texas before a wrist injury cut short his 2007 season.

- Last year Ted Ginn went #9 overall. This year his virtual twin DeSean Jackson went 49th. Amazing how radically draft value perception changes in just 1 year. By the way, I like Philly’s move to take him mid 2nd round. Now put 12-15 lbs on him.

- Cedric Benson…say hello to Matt Forte from Tulane. He’s gonna take your starting RB job this fall. 6’2”, 222, very well-rounded and very productive, and excelled Senior Bowl week against tougher competition.

- More and more teams seem to be stockpiling RBs…5 went in the 1st round, 2 in the 2nd, and most of these teams already had quality starters.

- The draft could have been an advertisement for the USC Trojan football program as four 1st rounders and three 2nd rounders were taken, the most in the first two rounds from the same school for over 40 years.

- Theory on why no WR’s went in the 1st round: Their flighty, often selfish personalities, and the fact that so few steadily contribute in year 1 (and no outright surefire future stars this year). Combine poor production and poor attitudes, and it’s no wonder GM’s will spend their $$$ and take their risks elsewhere early in the draft.

- There’s still 5 more rounds to be drafted Sunday and I’m already fiending for the season to begin.