The dominos keep falling as Charlie McAvoy becomes the latest free agent or free agent to be to sign.
Sure enough, the Bruins signed the defenseman to a three-year deal worth $4.9 million AAV. It has the look of the Zach Werenski deal to a tee. Let’s take a closer look.
What Charlie McAvoy means to the Boston Bruins
McAvoy’s ice time stayed around 22 minutes a night again as the defenseman still does not see the adequate power-play time. He seemed to be outmatched at times but was able to adapt. McAvoy scored 28 points in 54 games in 2018-19.
The defenseman played even better in the playoffs. His ability to move the puck up ice quickly was only equaled by his ability to create quality chances and rebounds. Also, McAvoy’s ability to possess the puck in tight spaces was on full display during the second season.
Now, the contract is signed and sealed. The first question asked has to be, when does McAvoy see a little more power-play time? Can he dislodge Torey Krug a bit from that top perch? The answer seems unlikely but if Charlie McAvoy can stay healthy, maybe the coaching staff reconsiders.
The soon to be 22-year-old gains a chance to have 45-50 point upside in Boston this season. That depends on his health as he has played just 117 of a possible 164 regular-season games.
Here is a PuckPedia snapshot on Charlie McAvoy.
The #Bruins re-sign 21 y/o RFA D McAvoy to 3 yr $4.9M Cap Hit deal per @TSNBobMcKenzie. Will be RFA on expiry.
-7G 28P in 54GP
-55.8% 5v5 GF%
-54.7% Expected GF
-54.7% Corsi
-Scored 1.3 P/60Rep’d by Michael Curran @OrrHockeyGrouphttps://t.co/5fC8NKjwne
— PuckPedia (@PuckPedia) September 15, 2019
Next, there is the numerology.
The numerology of Charlie McAvoy
Health exists as the only real concern with McAvoy. His offense and defense (especially at even-strength) have been excellent. In time, his power-play numbers will come up as the average time on ice increases.
The defenseman dropped to a +1.6% relative last year and that second half was about the same even with Boston’s hot streak.
Also, most point out that McAvoy’s upside is only going to increase from here. McAvoy has points per 60 at 1.29 and trending upward. Furthermore, his on-ice shooting percentage is double-digits in the early going of his career. That figures not to change much this year.
Here is a standardized RAPM chart from Evolving Hockey.
McAvoy’s power-play part of the chart concerns few or no one as 84 minutes is not much time to judge or even criticize goals for but that was because the second power-play unit was so rarely used.
Even tougher minutes expect to greet McAvoy in 2019-20 as Zdeno Chara is another year older and Torey Krug cannot do it all by himself. Yes, Brandon Carlo will be a help but McAvoy should take that leap this year.
This signing helps both sides. Few dispute the AAV but that third year sets up well for McAvoy to succeed. It will set up a robust qualifying offer as the defenseman will still be an RFA at the end of this deal.
McAvoy presents a growing ceiling that will only evolve as his game grows.
The details of the Charlie McAvoy deal
The $4.9 million AAV for three seasons is structured much like the Zach Werenski contract.
Contract breakdown:
Year 1 – 3.7 total includes 2.5 SB
Year 2 – 3.7 total includes 1 mil Signing bonus
Year 3 – 7.3 all salary https://t.co/94Hdg8lqhG— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) September 15, 2019
The one big difference is the last year which is all salary, McAvoy does receive $3.5 million worth of signing bonuses. Also, that $7.3 million third-year sets up for a qualifying offer of approximately $8.03 million. Boston pays a dear price for this bridge deal and it will be steep.
Some final words on Charlie McAvoy
McAvoy showed last year he can take on the big minutes in the playoffs. He logged over 24 minutes of ice time and chipped in eight points in 23 contests. His shots on goal dropped to around one a game but his chances inched up by about 10% or so. One gives to get as they say.
McAvoy expects to live up to his new salary but how much will his role expand in that time? With questions surrounding Torey Krug’s future, we may find out sooner rather than later how McAvoy handles the top defenseman role in Boston. Either way, the future is bright for the young rearguard.